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ARTICLES

 

2004 Regional Championships - Prediction retrospective

John James continues his look at how 4BR did in the 2004 Regional Championship prediction stakes - the biggest brass band handicap race in the world.

We put our money where our big mouths were, but did we come away a few bob in our pockets or did the bookies clean up as usual?

This is how we did in the First and Second Sections.


First Section

Of the 56 bands in the 1st Section, inclusive of the ‘dark horses’, that we predicted were likely to finish in the frame, 39 actually went on to achieve a place in the top 6 – another very good return of 69.6%.

If we take only the top 4 places in the eight Regions our band predictions covered 28 bands (of a possible 32 bands) giving another impressive return of 87.5%.

Our best results must be the 6 places we pegged absolutely by position and prediction and the 15 where we were within one place either side. Just like in the Championship Section this section saw a pretty good return too for our beloved soothsayer (almost as good as Mad-Eye Moody, Harry Potter’s Defence Against Dark Arts Tutor)!!!!

In Scotland once more we had a decent return with 5 bands out of our 7 finishing in the frame, a feat we matched in the Midlands. Our spread in the North West and Yorkshire eclipsed these though where we spotted Pemberton to take the North West and to boot placed all the top four bands in the section. What an each-way scorcher !!! That was supported by good return across the Pennines where our top 6 all vied for, and came in the frame as well. Just a shame Horbury Victoria had to withdraw but it did make it a clean sweep for our nominated six bands.

It would be unfair to look to the North of England, were a small section contested the day, however looking to the rest of the country and the bands we thought might return a place in the frame, we didn’t bring quite as much luck to the bands in the West of England. Only 3 of our 7 were successful here whilst in the other regions Abergavenny Borough, Swindon Pegasus Brass and Greasley Old Hall didn’t return the results we perhaps thought they would. Granite City Brass and Johnstone Silver were just out of the frame having figured them for a higher place.

You have to concede though once more the FDPO for the 1st Section represented another most convincing return.

Are you now beginning to think you might like to be named in our predictions?

Winners

Bournemouth Concert Brass - 4BR predicted 1st
Newtongrange Silver - 4BR predicted 1st
Pemberton Old Wigan - 4BR predicted 1st
Parc and Dare - 4BR predicted 2nd
Staines Brass - 4BR predicted 2nd
Kirbymoorside - 4BR predicted 4th
Hatfield Coal Power - 4BR predicted 6th
Langley - 4BR predicted Dark Horse

Runners-Up

Barrow Shipyard - 4BR predicted 1st
Riddings - 4BR predicted 1st
Drighlington - 4BR predicted 3rd
Northfleet Brass - 4BR predicted 3rd
Vernon Building Society Poynton - 4BR predicted 3rd
Wrexham Brass - 4BR predicted 3rd
Lanner and District Silver - 4BR predicted 4th
Newmilns and Galston - 4BR predicted 5th

3rd Place

Gregg’s Bakery - 4BR predicted 2nd
Clacton on Sea Co-operative - 4BR predicted 4th
Mossley - 4BR predicted 4th
Old Silkstone - 4BR predicted 5th
Towcester Studio - 4BR predicted 6th
Kirkintilloch Kelvin Brass - 4BR predicted no place
Penclawdd - 4BR predicted no place
Poole Borough - 4BR predicted no place

4th Place

Jackfield Elcock Reisen - 4BR predicted 4th
United Co-op Yorkshire Brass Band - 4BR predicted 1st
United Norwest Co-op Milnrow - 4BR predicted 2nd
Aldbourne - 4BR predicted 3rd
Easington Colliery - 4BR predicted 5th
Pontardulais Town - 4BR predicted 5th
Arbroath Instrumental - 4BR predicted Dark Horse
Stonesfield Silver - 4BR predicted no place

5th Place

Ammanford Town - 4BR predicted 5th
Zone One Brass - 4BR predicted 1st
Hade Edge (J & E Dickinson) - 4BR predicted 2nd
Dunaskin Doon - 4BR predicted 4th
Pride Valley - 4BR predicted 6th
Tyldesley - 4BR predicted Dark Horse
Sherborne Town - 4BR predicted no place
Tintwistle - 4BR predicted no place

6th Place

Clackmannan District Brass - 4BR predicted 6th
Marsden Silver - 4BR predicted 4th
Unity Brass (FMUFS) - 4BR predicted 5th
Broseley Brass) - 4BR predicted Dark Horse
York Railway Institute - 4BR predicted Dark Horse
Blackburn and Darwen - 4BR predicted no place
Lydbrook - 4BR predicted no place
Rhyl Silver - 4BR predicted no place


Outside the Top 6

Granite City Brass - Came 7th - 4BR predicted 3rd
Johnstone Silver - Came 7th - 4BR predicted 2nd
Langbaurgh – Came 7th - 4BR predicted 3rd
Abergavenny Borough - Came =8th - 4BR predicted 1st
Tylorstown (Valley Lines) - Came =8th - 4BR predicted 6th
Rogerstone – Came 8th - 4BR predicted Dark Horse
Bollington – Came 9th - 4BR predicted 5th
Moston and Beswick - Came 11th - 4BR predicted 6th
Denham Hendon - Came 15th - 4BR predicted 6th
Swindon Pegasus Brass - Came 9th - 4BR predicted 2nd
Ocean Brass – Came 10th - 4BR predicted 5th
Shirley - Came 10th - 4BR predicted 3rd
Greasley Old Hall – Came 11th - 4BR predicted 2nd
St. Keverne – Came 12th - 4BR predicted Dark Horse
Torbay – Came 14th - 4BR predicted 6th
Egham – Came 17th - 4BR predicted 5th
Horbury Victoria - Withdrew - 4BR predicted Dark Horse



Second Section

Of the 56 bands in the Second Section, inclusive of the ‘dark horses’, we predicted were likely to finish in the frame 32 actually went on to achieve a place in the top 6 – another decent return getting over half right with a percentage of 57.1%.

If we take only the top 4 places in the eight Regions our band predictions covered 20 bands (of a possible 32 bands) giving a higher average and another impressive return of 62.5%.

We achieved a similar average of a 64.7% come back in naming qualifying bands only lowered as our predictions for runners-up places returned four of the eight qualifiers.

As with the First Section here too we named 6 bands by position and prediction and just a few less with 11 within one place either side.

An absolutely wonderful result in Wales predicting winner and runner –up and we all but had a clean sweep with just Briton Ferry one place out in 8th.

Once more the North of England had a small section but we nominated 5 bands in the frame from our 7 and once more we seemed to have an eye on the Midlands with five bands once more gaining good results.

The North West gave us a return of 4 bands, if not the winner, but in Scotland where we also named 4 bands Barrhead Burgh came good for the win.

In Yorkshire we perhaps should have looked to the boys in blue as both Police Bands came good and in the South our results were little less convincing but as they say ‘You win some and lose some’ but this was in contrast to the fact that we still all but nominated two thirds of the qualifying bands.

So three sections covered and our FDPO still returning positive stats. Go on Mystic Meg !!!!!!

Winners

Barrhead Burgh - 4BR predicted 1st
Llanrug - 4BR predicted 1st
Otterbourne Brass - 4BR predicted 2nd
Becontree Brass - 4BR predicted 4th
Yorkshire Building Society Concert - 4BR predicted 6th
Hathern - 4BR predicted Dark Horse
Ellington Colliery - 4BR predicted no place
Old Hall Brass - 4BR predicted no place

Runners-Up

Markham and District - 4BR predicted 2nd
Wire Brass - 4BR predicted 1st
Felling - 4BR predicted 3rd
Raunds Temperance - 4BR predicted 3rd
Barnsley Building Society - 4BR predicted no place
Forest of Dean - 4BR predicted no place
Kilmarnock Concert Brass - 4BR predicted no place
St. Albans City - 4BR predicted no place

3rd Place

Helston Town - 4BR predicted 3rd
Houghton Brass - 4BR predicted 3rd
St. Ronan's Silver - 4BR predicted 2nd
RAF St. Athan Voluntary - 4BR predicted 5th
Haslingden and Helmshore - 4BR predicted 6th
Stourport on Severn - 4BR predicted 6th
South Yorkshire Police - 4BR predicted no place
Yiewsley and West Drayton - 4BR predicted no place

4th Place

GT Group Peterlee - 4BR predicted 1st
Snibston & Desford - 4BR predicted 1st
Deiniolen - 4BR predicted 3rd
Crystal Palace - 4BR predicted 5th
Silk Brass AstraZeneca (Macclesfield) - 4BR predicted Dark Horse
Dalkeith and Monktonhall Colliery - 4BR predicted no place
West Yorkshire Police - 4BR predicted no place
Woodfalls Concert Brass - 4BR predicted no place

5th Place

Diggle - 4BR predicted 3rd
Spennymoor Town - 4BR predicted 4th
Croy Parish Silver - 4BR predicted 6th
Conway Town - 4BR predicted Dark Horse
Rockingham - 4BR predicted Dark Horse
Filton Concert Brass - 4BR predicted no place
Harborough - 4BR predicted no place
Ware Brass - 4BR predicted no place

6th Place

Phoenix Brass (Crewkerne) - 4BR predicted 6th
Elland Silver - 4BR predicted 3rd
Lochgelly - 4BR predicted 3rd
Ynyshir Stack of Tiles - 4BR predicted 4th
Hopkins Solicitors Blidworth - 4BR predicted 5th
Wansbeck’s Ashington - 4BR predicted 5th
Betteshanger Welfare - 4BR predicted no place
Eagley - 4BR predicted no place


Outside the Top 6

Cockerton – Came 7th - 4BR predicted Dark Horse
Delph – Came 7th - 4BR predicted 4th
Strata Brass - Came 7th - 4BR predicted 4th
Blackpool – Came 8th - 4BR predicted 5th
Briton Ferry – Came 8th - 4BR predicted 6th
City of Discovery - Came 8th - 4BR predicted Dark Horse
East London Brass - Came 8th - 4BR predicted 6th
Hebden Bridge – Came 8th - 4BR predicted 5th
Soundhouse Brass - Came 8th - 4BR predicted 5th
Frickley/South Elmshall -Came 9th - 4BR predicted 2nd
Woking – Came 9th - 4BR predicted Dark Horse
Horsham Borough - Came 10th - 4BR predicted 1st
Lympstone South West Telecom - Came 11th - 4BR predicted 1st
Meltham and Meltham Mills – Came 11th - 4BR predicted 1st
Renfrew Burgh - Came 11th - 4BR predicted 4th
Cawston – Came 12th - 4BR predicted 3rd
Clydebank Burgh - Came = 12th - 4BR predicted 5th
Foresters Brass- Came 12th - 4BR predicted 4th
Manx Concert Brass - Came 12th - 4BR predicted 2nd
Michelmersh Silver - Came 12th - 4BR predicted 4th
Brighton Silver - Came 13th 4BR predicted 2nd
Carlton Brass – Came 13th - 4BR predicted 2nd
Totnes – Came 13th - 4BR predicted Dark Horse
Lanchester - Withdrew - 4BR predicted 6th

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