2008 National Championships of Great Britain - The luck of the draw: 1968 - 2007

7-Oct-2008

4BR has updated the records to show which draw numbers may give your band that little bit of an extra slice of luck come draw time - and which ones won't.


National TrophyWe've been trawling through the record books once more and have updated those types of details that keep your Band Secretary awake at night with nightmares. Yes – the draw. 

If you thought having an early draw meant the end of your chances at the Open then you won't be glad to hear again that it's much the same picture when it comes to the National Finals as well.

We've gone back to 1968 and fed the results of each contest into our computer - and you don't need to have a degree in rocket science to tell what the results were. 

If you want to win, then get a draw in the last third of the contest - you can just about kiss your hopes goodbye if you are drawn number 4 or 5.

We've also had a look at the bottom six results for the past 18 years, and surprisingly they make interesting reading, as they don't really conform to what we have come to expect. 

It seems that just about every number of the draw has had the misfortune of being placed down with the dead men in the last few years – so that will be of no comfort to you at all.

Last year saw a top six that read draw numbers: 18, 6, 11, 13, 3, and 20 whilst the bottom six came from numbers 9, 7, 16, 8, 1 and 14. What will be the lucky and unlucky numbers in 2008 then?
 

Top 6 Positions at the National Finals 1968 – 2007

Draw

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

Total

1

 

2

1

 

3

2

8

2

 

1

3

1

2

1

8

3

1

 

2

1

3

2

9

4

 

2

2

1

1

1

7

5

2

1

1

1

1

 

6

6

2

2

3

1

 

1

9

7

2

2

1

2

1

1

9

8

2

6

2

 

1

1

12

9

3

2

2

1

2

1

11

10

 

 

1

3

4

 

8

11

3

3

3

2

4

3

18

12

4

3

2

1

2

3

15

13

1

3

 

4

3

1

12

14

4

2

2

2

2

2

14

15

2

2

1

3

3

 

11

16

2

1

2

3

 

5

13

17

4

1

3

3

3

4

18

18

3

 

5

1

1

1

11

19

4

4

1

4

1

2

16

20

1

3

 

5

 

4

13

21

 

 

2

 

 

1

3

22

 

 

 

1

 

 

1

23

 

 

1

 

1

 

2

24

 

1

 

 

 

 

1

So the hard facts are these:

Numbers 1, 2, 4 and 10 have never won the top prize in the past 39 years, and we believe from our records that you have to go back to 1910 for a performance from either number 1 or 2 to win, when Fodens won off the number 2 spot.

Fodens did win from the draw number 4 - but back in 1932, so that's not much better and Fodens won again off number 10 in 1953. The first quarter of the draw (1-5 as there are now 20 bands at the contest each year) has only produced three winners since 1970, when Fodens won off number 5 in 1999, Desford won off number 3 in 1991 and Leyland won from number 5 in 2005.

The best draw seems to be around numbers 11 – 17, which has seen 20 winners since 1970 and no less than 15 runners up, whilst numbers 17, 18 and 19 account for half of those.

At the moment the very best draws remain number 17 and 11, both of which has produced 36 top six prize winners since 1968. Last but one at number 19 isn't too bad either with 16 prizes awarded.

Being drawn last really isn't that good as number 20 has just the one win in 1990 and three second places, although it has seen three fourth places in the past six years. Just 13 times has the number set up the band for a mention off the stage.

As for the worse numbers of the lot?

Well it's definitely numbers 4 and 5, despite Leyland’s fine effort a couple of years ago.

This is the complete breakdown:

Number 1: No Wins: 2 Seconds (1978, 1990): 1 Third (1979): 3 Fifths (1982, 1996, 2002): 2 Sixths (1993, 2000)
Number 2: No Wins: 1 Second (1977): 3 Thirds (1987, 1995, 1997): 1 Fourth (2001): 2 Fifths (1968, 2003): 1 Sixth (1984)
Number 3: 1 Win (1991): 2 Thirds (1981, 1985): 1 Fourth (2003): 3 Fifths (1973, 1988, 2007): 2 Sixths (1976, 1988)
Number 4: No Wins: 2 Seconds (1984, 1990): 2 Thirds (2002, 2006): 1 Fourth (1986): 1 Fifth (1993): 1 Sixth (1980)
Number 5: 2 Win: (1999, 2005): 1 Second (1994): 1 Third (1982): 1 Fourth (1971): 1 Fifth (1995)
Number 6: 2 Wins (1981, 1997): 2 Second (1989, 2007): 3 Thirds (1986, 1996, 2005): 1 Fourth (1969): 1 Sixth (1985)
Number 7: 2 Wins (1972, 1973): 2 Second (1998, 2004): 1 Third (1993): 2 Fourth (1996, 2006): 1 Fifth (1974): 1 Sixth (1978)
Number 8: 2 Wins (1968, 1975): 6 Seconds (1979, 1982, 1985, 1993, 2000, 2006): 2 Thirds (1970, 1992): 1 Fifth (1972): 1 Sixth (2001)
Number 9: 3 Wins (1978, 1983, 1993): 2 Second (1975, 2002): 2 Thirds (1973, 1977): 1 Fourth (1987): 2 Fifths (1981, 1985): 1 Sixth (2004)
Number 10: No Wins: 1 Third (1969): 3 Fourths (1976, 1981, 1994): 4 Fifths (1975, 1989, 1997, 2004)
Number 11: 3 Wins (1969, 1988, 2004): 3 Seconds (1968, 1995, 2003): 3 Thirds (1978, 1999, 2007): 2 Fourths (1970, 1983): 4 Fifths (1986, 1992, 1995, 1998) 3 Sixths (1977, 1989, 1997)
Number 12: 4 Wins (1970, 1986, 2000, 2001): 3 Seconds (1976, 1983, 1988): 2 Thirds (1971, 2003): 1 Fourth (1975): 2 Fifths (1984, 2005): 3 Sixths (1972, 1982, 1992)
Number 13: 1 Win (1979): 3 Seconds (1970, 1997, 1999): 4 Fourths (1978, 1984, 1992, 2007): 3 Fifths (1976, 1990, 2000,): 1 Sixth (1996)
Number 14: 4 Wins (1984, 1989, 1998, 2002): 2 Seconds (1971, 1981): 2 Thirds (1972, 1990): 2 Fourths (1977, 1985): 2 Fifths (1983, 1999): 2 Sixths (1974, 1987)
Number 15: 2 Wins (1974, 1976): 2 Seconds (1972, 1992): 1 Third (2000): 3 Fourths (1980, 1991, 1995): 3 Fifths (1978, 2001, 2006)
Number 16: 2 Wins (1971, 2006): 1 Second (1974): 2 Thirds (1980, 1998): 3 Fourths (1972, 1982, 1989): 5 Sixths (1973, 1975, 1983, 1986, 1994)
Number 17: 4 Wins (1982, 1985, 1992, 1995): 1 Second (2005); 3 Thirds (1975, 1983, 1984): 3 Fourths (1973, 1993, 1997): 3 Fifths (1979, 1980, 1987): 4 Sixths (1998, 1999, 2002, 2003)
Number 18: 3 Wins (1987, 1996, 2007): 5 Thirds (1974, 1988, 1994, 2001, 2004): 1 Fourth (2000): 1 Fifth (1977); 1 Sixth (2005)
Number 19: 4 Wins (1977, 1980, 1994, 2003): 4 Seconds (1973, 1986, 1987, 1996): 1 Third (1968): 4 Fourths (1974, 1979, 1988, 1990): 1 Fifth (1991): 2 Sixth (1969, 1995)
Number 20: 1 Win (1990): 3 Seconds (1980, 1991, 2001): 5 Fourths (1998, 1999, 2002, 2004, 2005): 4 Sixths (1979, 1981, 2006, 2007)
Number 21: No Wins: 2 Thirds (1976, 1989): 1 Sixth (1991)
Number 22: No Wins: 1 Fourth (1968)
Number 23: No Wins: 1 Third (1991): 1 Fifth (1969)
Number 24: No Wins: 1 Second (1969)

The Bottom 6:
Not as bad as you may have first thought. Certainly having an early draw doesn't help, but overall coming down in the basement list isn't confined solely to number 1 – 5.

The worst culprit are in fact numbers 7 and 1, which has meant your band coming in the relegation zone on 18 occasions in the past 20 years.

The list however makes interesting reading, not just for the fact that the filed of competitors has now been reduced in the past ten years from 23 bands to 20.

The Bottom 6: 1987 – 2007
 

Year No of bands 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13
2007 20       9 7 16 8 1 14    
2006 20       5 13 9 1 10 2    
2005 20       11 1 7 16 14 3    
2004 20       17 4 6 14 13 1    
2003 20       7 1 14 5 4 20    
2002 20       3 7 2 12 18 6    
2001 20       9 19 5 7 3 17    
2000 19         5 7 17 4 14 16  
1999 20       10 8 16 7 15 18    
1998 20       12 9 15 13 8 19    
1997 18           16 4 3 15 7 5
1996 19         17 8 5 11 2 12  
1995 19         12 13 1 4 9 14  
1994 20       13 7 20 8 4 15    
1993 21     3 11 19 2 16 5      
1992 19         7 9 3 10 19 1  
1991 23 9 14 22 8 11 18          
1990 23 18 11 22 5 6 10          
1989 22   3 9 18 8 17 15        
1988 19         1 2 15 17 7 16  
1987 19         13 7 6 8 16 1  

In the past 21 years the following draw numbers have come up these many times in the bottom 6:

Number 1 – 9 times
Number 2 – 5 times
Number 3 – 7 times
Number 4 – 6 times
Number 5 – 8 times
Number 6 – 4 times
Number 7 – 11 times
Number 8 – 8 times
Number 9 – 8 times
Number 10 – 3 times
Number 11 – 5 times
Number 12 – 4 times
Number 13 – 6 times
Number 14 – 7 times
Number 15 – 5 times
Number 16 – 5 times
Number 17 – 6 times
Number 18 – 5 times
Number 19 – 3 times
Number 20 – 2 times
Number 21 – 0
Number 22 – 2 times
Number 23 - 0

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